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With the upgrading of industrial technology, oil will be better used. At present, the oil refining industry is facing the problem of shrinking refining profit margins and persistent excess refining capacity. Moreover, under the background of dual carbon, the pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry has further increased.

In the oil refining industry, how to avoid "involution" and embark on a path of innovation and development?

The refining industry is facing challenges

The benefits and proportions of the three major sectors of the entire petroleum and petrochemical industry are changing.

In the first half of this year, due to the high price of crude oil, the oil and gas sector benefited more, and the proportion of operating income and profits in the industry increased. However, the proportions of both the oil refining and chemical sectors have declined, and the oil refining sector has been affected more severely, with profits down 25.3% year-on-year. When the high oil price is further transmitted to the downstream chemical sector, the chemical price is also relatively high, but the impact is relatively small. The profit increased by 14.1% year-on-year, accounting for 58.3% of the industry's total profit.

In fact, the oil refining sector is not only faced with squeezed profits, but also the greater challenge of slowing gasoline consumption growth and apparent excess refining capacity.

From the perspective of the market situation, domestic diesel consumption has reached its peak in 2015 (173 million tons), and the growth rate of gasoline consumption has slowed down significantly at present, and is expected to reach its peak in 2025 (156 million tons).

With the electrification transformation of the transportation industry, the sales of refined oil products will face the risk of stagnant or even reduced growth in the future.

At the same time, although the current domestic oil refining capacity is excess, the proportion of capacity that is truly world-leading and meets the requirements of green and low-carbon development is not high, and there is a large gap in high-end chemical products.

In 2021, the output of my country's new chemical materials will be about 29 million tons, but the consumption will be as high as 40.5 million tons, with a shortfall of nearly 11.5 million tons and a self-sufficiency rate of only about 71%. Especially in some key resin materials, special fibers, high-performance membrane materials, electronic chemicals and other fields, the short board problem is more prominent.

At the same time, the petrochemical industry, as a high-energy-consuming industry, is also facing the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction.

In July this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the "Plan for Implementation of Carbon Peak in the Industrial Sector". The plan is clear. By 2025, the petrochemical and chemical industry will make positive progress in "reducing oil and increasing chemical production". The proportion of refined oil output in new integrated refining and chemical projects to crude oil processing volume will be reduced to less than 40%, and the deployment of large-scale carbon capture, utilization and storage industries will be accelerated. Demonstration projects.

Under the new situation, the oil refining industry is facing multiple challenges, and it will become inevitable to promote the transformation of the petrochemical industry from extensive development to high-quality development.

What about oil refineries?

Sailing against the current, if you don't advance, you will retreat.

Extending the industrial chain and developing the product structure toward refinement, high-end, and functionalization are the correct choices for transformation and upgrading.

As an oil and petrochemical giant, PetroChina took the lead in advancing the adjustment of refining structure.

On the one hand, increase high-end chemical supporting projects to promote the upgrading of the refining and chemical industry.

In July this year, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical Refining and Chemical Integration Transformation and Upgrading Project was officially launched. This project is not only a major project in the planning and layout of the national petrochemical industry, but also a strategic project for PetroChina to promote structural adjustment by "reducing oil and increasing chemical production".

Relying on the existing crude oil processing capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical's 10-million-ton refinery project, the project uses light naphtha and other products produced by the refinery as raw materials to build a new million-ton ethylene cracking and downstream deep processing device.

After the project is completed and put into operation, it will increase the production capacity of basic chemical raw materials such as ethylene, propylene, and butadiene by about 2.76 million tons, and extend the development of high-value-added products such as high-end polyolefins, EVA, and solution-polymerized rubber. It will promote the transformation of PetroChina's refining and chemical business from "fuel-based" to "chemical products and organic materials-based", the company's product structure will be more reasonable, and its competitiveness will be further enhanced.

In addition, the project adopts advanced environmental protection and energy-saving technologies, and all new electricity consumption uses green electricity, which is of great significance for promoting the green and low-carbon transformation and development of China's petroleum refining and chemical business.

On the other hand, actively promote the scientific and technological innovation of high-end chemicals and new materials, and strive to seize the commanding heights of technology.

PetroChina not only established a new energy and new material business development leading group, but also promoted the "new material speed-up project" for the development of new material business, and carried out research and deployment around high-performance synthetic materials, special engineering plastics, and special electronic materials.

In December 2021, PetroChina established PetroChina (Shanghai) New Materials Research Institute Co., Ltd., specifying that the company's R&D focus mainly includes new chemical materials such as medical polymer materials, high-end carbon materials, new energy materials, electronic information materials, and elastomer materials. .

This year, PetroChina has continuously increased its efforts in developing new materials.

In May, PetroChina adjusted the company's business scope and included the new material business into the business scope.

At the end of September, PetroChina established the Japan Advanced Materials Research Institute in Japan to further carry out the research and innovation of new materials through cooperation with material powers.

At the same time, the refining and chemical enterprises under the Group focused on market needs and industry development trends, concentrated their strengths to make breakthroughs in key core technologies and products in key areas, and launched a batch of new materials and products suitable for the market.

For example: the metallocene ultra-high melting point polypropylene product jointly developed by Harbin Petrochemical and Petrochemical Research Institute; Daqing Petrochemical's polyolefin "high-end material"; Fushun Petrochemical's random copolymer polypropylene resin; Dushanzi Petrochemical's anti-yellowing polystyrene GPPS-300LR, EVA; Jinzhou Petrochemical's G1 electronic grade isopropanol, low shrinkage injection molding special material 1100P...

PetroChina is constantly promoting the revolutionary pace of high-end new materials through its own research and innovation on new materials.

Technology and production capacity alone are not enough, we also need to fully develop the chemical market.

PetroChina has formulated marketing strategies by region, carried out special marketing by product, and launched the CNPC e-commerce platform.

PetroChina's third-quarter financial report shows that the output of new materials has increased significantly this year, and the volume of chemical products has reached 23.486 million tons, an increase of 3.5% over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the output of ethylene was 5,498 thousand tons, an increase of 15.6% over the same period last year; the output of synthetic resin was 8,623 thousand tons, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year; the output of urea was 1,995 thousand tons, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year.

Oil, a bigger future

It is a challenge, but also an opportunity.

In April of this year, the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan" jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other six departments proposed that by 2025, the petrochemical and chemical industry will basically form a strong independent innovation capability, a reasonable structure layout, and a green environment. Safe and low-carbon high-quality development pattern.

During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the refining and chemical industry will speed up structural adjustment, focusing on speeding up the structural adjustment of refining, and realize the differentiated and high-end development of chemical industry.

The petrochemical industry is in a new period of strategic opportunities.

On the one hand, there are multiple favorable policy factors.

Since 2018, the state has increased policy support for high-end manufacturing and new materials. The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the long-term goal of 2035 also proposed to vigorously develop strategic emerging industries and accelerate the growth of a new generation of new material industries.

Subsequently, chemical raw materials and chemical product manufacturing were also mentioned in many policy documents such as "Made in China 2025". The "Guidelines for the Development of New Materials Industry" pointed out the key directions for the development of new materials.

In December 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guidance Catalog for the First Batch of Application Demonstration of Key New Materials (2021 Edition)", which includes more than 300 materials in three categories: advanced basic materials, key strategic materials, and cutting-edge new materials. Including high-performance fibers and composite materials, advanced semiconductor materials and new display materials and other varieties.

On the other hand, the market prospects for high-end chemicals and new materials are broad.

At present, domestic high-end consumer demand is growing rapidly. Whether it is the clothes and shoes to wear, badminton rackets for entertainment, or various daily necessities, people have a pursuit of better quality. Just like we used to wear polyester, polypropylene, and acrylic clothes, now we prefer to wear clothes made of nylon 66 and fabrics made of polyimide.

At the same time, the rapid development of emerging industries such as new energy cannot do without the support of new materials.

Just like the EVA resin products produced by Dushanzi Petrochemical Company, they can cover solar photovoltaic film, high-end foam products, ultra-high voltage wire and cable and other manufacturing fields.

The development of wind power and other clean energy equipment industries is also inseparable from new chemical materials. Whether a unit with larger capacity and higher efficiency can be manufactured depends on the material properties of the blades, and carbon fiber materials are the key to solving this problem.

In addition, the reliability of storage and transportation equipment can be better guaranteed through the research and development of hydrogen storage material technology, which plays an important role in promoting the development of the hydrogen energy industry.

It can be seen that we should firmly grasp the current fast-growing key industries and develop a batch of industry-oriented, high-quality, high-quality, green and environmentally friendly innovative chemicals; in response to the current fast-growing high-end consumer demand, develop a batch of end-market-oriented , New consumer chemicals oriented towards nutrition and health, and improving people's livelihood; in response to special needs, develop a batch of specialty chemicals with new uses and new markets, and strive to "develop ourselves while supporting others", which can form a number of new growth points , so that the oil can be well applied.